Because climate change is seriously uncool.
Negotiating climate action in a hung parliament
Australians woke up on Sunday to find neither Labor or Opposition Liberal and National parties had achieved a majority of seats in the Federal House of Representatives. Indeed, the Greens were the main winners with over a 5 per cent national swing and 6 senators likely elected, achieving the balance of power position in the Senate; and an historic breakthrough win for Adam Bandt in Melbourne, the first Greens MHR elected in a Federal election.
This election was a referendum on climate action and both Labor and Liberal/Nationals received a thumbs down from the voting public. A minority Government now needs to negotiate an effective carbon price and action on climate change with the Greens and the Independents.
In a hung parliament the three independent MPs - Bob Katter from Kennedy (Queensland), Tony Windsor from New England (NSW) and Rob Oakeshott from Lyne (NSW), all formerly from the National Party, plus progressive greens independant Andrew Wilkie who is likely to be elected for Denison (Tas), and Greens member Adam Bandt for Melbourne (Vic), may determine who makes up the next minority Government.
While on the surface it may appear that Katter, Windsor and Oakeshott might side with the conservatives, they have often been the subject of ridicule and derision by Liberal and National Party MPs. They are all hard working independent MPs from rural areas who focus on often parochial issues and the need for greater funding of rural and regional infrastructure including communications (National Broadband Network) and health and education services. Indeed, the Independents may be more likely to support a Gillard Government that introduces open and transparent Government which adequately addresses major social and infrastructure inequalities in rural and regional areas.
Climate Issues
On climate issues, Rob Oakeshott told AAP on Sunday that ETS is my priority:
"That is one example of what we may be able to deliver for this country, which the last parliament couldn't do, and is one of the reasons why we saw leadership changes on both sides," he said, referring to the Labor government's failed bid to secure support for an emissions trading scheme (ETS).
"I would personally say, let's go back to the Garnaut report and try and get something through based on that. The template is there, stick to the script, keep it simple."
Tony Windsor has also been an advocate of climate action. In October 2008 he said that a do nothing option was not an option. "The easy option for the current generation of politicians is to do nothing and adopt a Clayton's strategy. As a Member of Parliament, I would rather err on the side of doing something meaningful than look back in 50 years and wonder why nothing was done domestically or globally to address the problem," Mr Windsor said in a media release.
Windsor introduced a private members bill in the House of Representatives - the Climate Protection Bill 2008 - which had drafting input from 65 environment groups. The Bill was designed to meet Australia's commitments under Kyoto "to ensure a substantial reduction in human derived greenhouse gas from Australia; to set mandatory targets for reducing human derived greenhouse gas emissions from Australia, with the first being a reduction by at least 30 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020 and the second being a reduction by at least 80 per cent below 1990 levels by 2050; and to ensure that Australia meets these targets."
By comparison, Bob Katter is a confirmed climate change sceptic telling the ABC in 2009 "Are you telling me seriously that the world is going to warm because there's 400 parts per million of CO2 up there?".
The last of the independents, Andrew Wilkie, was a surprise contender for winning the Hobart based seat of Denison. He was once a member of the Liberal Party and also formerly stood as a Greens candidate in 2004 and many of his current policies are socially progressive. On Climate change his election policy is "Humanity is undoubtedly influencing climate change. Not only does Australia have an environmental and social obligation to help do something about it, but to do so will also be in Australia's economic interest. A price must be put on carbon pollution, possibly as part of an enhanced Emissions Trading Scheme."
The Greens campaigned for climate action as one of their essential policies and received on a national basis a swing to them of around 3.6 per cent, taking their national primary vote to 11.43 per cent. Adam Bandt was successful in winning the seat of Melbourne from Labor with a 10 per cent two party preferred swing, at least partly attributed to the climate issue. Adam Bandt has pledged to work only with a minority Labor Government.
The Greens have a strong mandate to negotiate action on climate from any minority government and are likely to have 9 senators from July 1st 2011 who will hold the balance of power in the upper house. Any minority government will need to negotiate with the Greens to successfully pursue it's legislative program, including on action on climate change.
There has been a lot of commentators linking the swings against Labor in Queensland and New South Wales to voters wanting to punish state Labor Government. By reverse logic the swing to Labor in Victoria should take into account Victorian Premier John Brumby's announcement mid campaign of an emissions reduction target, generous renewables feed-in tariff and commitment to close part of Hazelwood, the dirtiest coal fired power station in Australia which thus made the Labor brand in Victoria more climate friendly. Labor won two seats from the Liberals in Victoria.
Similarly in Tasmania a Labor minority Government is successfully governing the state with the support of the Greens. In both states there were swings to Labor.
In the last parliament Labor's Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme (CPRS) offered too much compensation to polluters, as independently assessed by the Grattan Institute, and would not see emissions effectively reduced until 2035. It was plain to anyone who investigated this legislation that it was deeply flawed, which is why the Greens voted against it in the Senate.
Minority Government
In recent decades minority governments have successfully operated at the state level. It is up to those occupying the crossbenches - the independents and 10 Greens MPs to negotiate to better the processes of government to deliver stable, open and transparent Government that operates for the benefit of all Australians.
How much agreement on processes and issues will depend on meetings between all the independents and the Greens over the coming week or two and how flexible Julia Giillard and Tony Abbott are with their negotiations including on action on climate change.
Add a Comment
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Comment by Ronnie Wright on August 26, 2010 at 0:21 -
I’m the one that is living with delusions?
Peter, perhaps you would care to have a little bit of German boar meat with your dinner. Do you have children Peter? Perhaps you would like to feed them a slice as well. This was published just a few days ago:
Almost a quarter century after the 1986 Chernobyl nuclear meltdown in Ukraine, its fallout is still a hot topic in some German regions, where thousands of boars shot by hunters still turn up with excessive levels of radioactivity. In fact, the numbers are higher than ever before.
Read the complete article here.
Ronnie Wright
World Change Cafe
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Comment by Takver on August 24, 2010 at 16:08 -
You also need to consider that there are limited quantities of easily extracted uranium. At the best, Nuclear power should be considered at best as a stopgap measure for transitioning to a 100 per cent renewables economy. In Northern Europe and northern America where there is already considerable nuclear infrastructure, it makes some sense to continue with this generating capacity, particularly as northerly latitudes don't have the solar insolation for the most efficient solar thermal power generation.
This problem of solar insolation is being addressed by Munich Re as part of a consortium planning a multi-billion dollar multi-nation project to harvest solar energy from Northern Africa and build a transmission grid with Europe.
In Australia, however, we do have a wide expanse of area where solar thermal power generation would be very efficient and make sense developing. Much of our transmission grid and technology is 30-50 years old and also needs substantial overhaul and updating. And the best areas for solar thermal are inland regional areas which would boost regional and rural economies. Australia is already developing wind farms, but also has good potential for developing geothermal, tidal and wave power.
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Comment by Adrian Barclay on August 24, 2010 at 14:44 -
Peter,
Think about the political capital that goes into a desalination plant or the failed airport a Badgerys Creek. Combine this with the difficulty of gaining the rights to uranium - which largely lies on Aboriginal land, monopolistic behaviour of nuclear plant manufacturers etc. Then there is the nuclear waste which lasts far longer than the political cycle - and with it accountability. If there are any mishaps with nuclear waste, the possibilities for blame shifting are endless. Remember back to our 2007, our first soldier to die in Iraq, Private Kovco, was a boiling political issue at the time. And, even amid the intense scrutiny, the government managed to lose his body on the way home. Call me a cynic, but I don't trust this or any world government with nuclear waste. A government could expend al of its political capital and not even get one nuclear plant up and running 10 years down the track. Nuclear plants are declining in the UK. They have found them far more expensive than promised and political liabilities. I think you would much more easily get a political consensus for renewables.
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Comment by Peter Wignall on August 24, 2010 at 14:02 -
Ronnie you are alarmist and living with delusions.
My point is that you are still alive and that there are so many in existence it is a done deal living with it instead of dreaming.
You might as well say: Stop all Wars and Vehicles. More people die from wars or motor accidents than have ever died from Nuclear, including Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
Life is a permanent threat! Live with it.
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Comment by Ronnie Wright on August 24, 2010 at 11:42
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Peter, I don’t think they should build nuclear power plants anywhere in the world until they are proven safe and a foolproof system of disposing of the waste is found. It’s my opinion that neither of these requirements will ever be met so it’s a closed deal in my view.
And, you need to keep in mind that when it comes to nuclear power plant accidents that the whole world is one big back yard. I was living in Berlin when contamination travelled all the way from Russian and we resorted to purchasing imported food and spent days indoors before we realised we couldn’t get away from it. We will never know the true impact that contamination had on human health and the environment.
I don’t say Not In My Back Yard. I say Not On This Planet.
Ronnie Wright
World Change Cafe
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Comment by Peter Wignall on August 24, 2010 at 10:05
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You are all talking NIMBY local.
Politicians all have homes, mortgages, and expenses. Now that aristocracy is dead, politicians with ideals are rare. Perhaps Julia Gillard is one who could earn more outside of politics than others. Lower down the ranks politicians, other than Independents, have less morals, they are in it for the cash/pension etc.
So they join the emotional mob dashing this way and that to retain invisibility.
Do any of them REFUSE to visit Europe for business/vacations etc, on the principal that in Europe there are:
As of June 30, 2010 there is a total of 195 nuclear power plant units with an installed electric net capacity of 170 GWe in operation in Europe and 19 units with 16,9 GWe were under construction in six countries.
Country in operation under construction
number net capacity MWe number net capacity MWe
Belgium 7 5,934 - -
Bulgaria 2 1,906 2 1.906
Czech Repuplic 6 3,678 - -
Finland 4 2,696 1 1,600
France 58 63,130 1 1,600
Germany 17 20,490 - -
Hungary 4 1,889 - -
Netherlands 1 487 - -
Romania 2 1,300 - -
Russian Federation 32 22,693 11 9,153
Slovakian Republic 4 1,762 2 782
Slovenia 1 666 - -
- 8 7,516 -
- 10 9,303 -
Switzerland 5 3,238 - -
Ukraine 15 13,107 2 1,900
United Kingdom 19 10,137 - -
total 195 169,932 19 16,941
Surely we have the skills to run one or two Nuclear Power Stations in each State?
STOP BEING SO PRECIOUS!
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Comment by Ryan Alexander on August 23, 2010 at 15:26 -
given Hasluck is likely to go to Libs now (they were ahead by 360 this morning and now by about 550), Labor will need to get two out of the three independents on side (plus Green Adam Bandt) to form government. Contrast this with the Liberals needing to get all three independents in order to elect Abbott as PM. In general, Oakeshott and Windsor's comments on the environment are very promising for action on climate change. But while Oakeshott is a firm advocate of an ETS, Oakeshott said on ABC24 last night that direct support for renewables could achieve the same sort of results.
It really comes down to the extent to which Oakeshott and Windsor are willing to meet their telecommunications and climate change policy goals through an incremental approach (which the Coalition will be pushing) or through a wholesale implementation of an NBN and ETS (as Labor broadly supports). The Coalition will probably push for more direct support for renewables and for an increased focus on regional services in their patchwork approach to broadband access. Labor, on the other hand, will try to sell a price on carbon and fibre-to-the-home as the most visionary and nation-building solutions that should determine whether they support Labor in its quest for re-election.
The other point to note is that if Oakeshott and Windsor want to be pragmatic about their approach to climate change, they will have to keep in mind that any policies they may agree upon with the Coalition will likely need to pass a Senate with a Greens balance of power in two out of the next three years. So a worked compromise on climate change policies with the Coalition now may actually result in less real action once the new Parliament sits.
Certainly with Labor and Liberals likely to end up with 73 seats each, and Labor having to work hard to convince two ex-Nationals to side with them, it is looking increasingly difficult for Gillard to retain power. However these independents are made of pretty strong stuff, and I expect some surprises from them in the coming days about what their priorities are and who they think is best placed to address them.
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Comment by Takver on August 23, 2010 at 14:04
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your welcome. I haven't had time to review Tony Windsor's 2008 Climate Protection Bill. Might be worthwhile looking into in some detail and providing a review on A climate for Change.
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Comment by Ronnie Wright on August 23, 2010 at 12:59
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I've been looking all over for this inforamtion so a big Thank You for posting it here.
Cheers,
Ronnie
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